By Marie T. Henehan
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In the process of demonstrating that the 1980s are not signi‹cantly more active than the 1960s, Hinckley has found that with the 26 Foreign Policy and Congress increases of the 1970s interposed between the other two decades, there is a curve in some areas of congressional foreign policy activity. It is quite common to ‹nd in the literature references to cycles or pendulum swings in congressional assertiveness. ” Bert A. Rockman (cited in C. 15 Warburg (1989, xxiii) points out that much commentary misses the basic fact that legislative-executive contests in foreign policy are not new.
If the time periods were instead 1946–50, 1951–68, 1968–75, and 1976–82, perhaps the ‹ndings would be more revealing; at least the “Vietnam era” would be more distinct. 11 In the second part of his article, Carter presents the ‹ndings of a regression analysis that uses as its dependent variable whether the president’s position is supported. Because his ‹ndings appear to be consonant with Kingdon’s (1989), Carter concludes that the president is not very in›uential and that foreign policy-making is more similar to domestic policy-making than different.
Clausen (1973) and Clausen and Van Horn (1977) ‹nd that although members’ votes are consistent in four areas of domestic policy, the votes shift in the area of foreign policy when the party of the president changes. This implies that the president can more successfully in›uence members in the 32 Foreign Policy and Congress area of foreign policy than in domestic policy, a ‹nding corroborated by Edwards (1980, 65–66). The assumption that the role of Congress in foreign policy varies by issue area is implicit in every book that has separate chapters on war powers, trade, arms control, defense, and foreign aid (Mann 1990b; Crabb and Holt 1992; Ripley and Lindsay 1993a; Peterson 1994b).